risk factor probability options (proficiency checks, saving throws, & to hit rolls)
Post by lavachildking » Sat Nov 25, 2023 8:22 pm
Just curious if any DM or GM’s do this for various course of actions. The bell curve probability is screen captured with results more or less available on: https://anydice.com/
Here’s some more interesting script https://anydice.com/
to get Bell curve probability / statistics for d100
output 1d20 named “1d20”
output [highest 1 of 2d20] named “ADVANTAGE highest 1 of 2d20 (+5 +(%25) better than average, or average = 15)”
output [lowest 1 of 2d20] named “DISadvantage lowest 1 of 2d20 (-5 -(%25) worse than average, or average = 5)”
output 2d20 / 2 named “LESS RISK OPTION 2d20 divided by 2 (average remains average as 1d20)”
output [highest 2 of 3d20] / 2 named “ADVANTAGE less risk option (+3.5 +(%17.5) better than average advantage) 3d20 drop lowest & divided by 2”
output [lowest 2 of 3d20] / 2 named “DISadvantage less risk option (-3.5 -(%17.5) worse than average DISadvantage) 3d20 drop highest & divided by 2”
output 3d20 / 3 named “LESS RISK OPTION 3d20 divided by 3 (average remains average as 1d20)”
output [highest 3 of 4d20] / 3 named “ADVANTAGE less risk option (+12.5% better average advantage) 4d20 drop lowest & divided by 3”
output [lowest 3 of 4d20] / 3 named “DISadvantage less risk option (-12.5% worse average DISadvantage) 4d20 drop highest & divided by 3”
output 1d6 named “1d6”
output [highest 1 of 2d6] named “ADVANTAGE highest 1 of 2d6 +(%25) better than average, or average = 15)”
output [lowest 1 of 2d6] named “DISadvantage lowest 1 of 2d6 -(%25) worse than average, or average = 5)”
output 2d6 / 2 named “LESS RISK OPTION 2d6 divided by 2 (average remains average as 1d6)”
output [highest 2 of 3d6] / 2 named “ADVANTAGE less risk option +(17.5%) better than average advantage) 3d6 drop lowest & divided by 2”
output [lowest 2 of 3d6] / 2 named “DISadvantage less risk option -(17.5%) worse than average DISadvantage) 3d6 drop highest & divided by 2”
output 3d6 / 3 named “LESS RISK OPTION 3d6 divided by 3 (average remains average as 1d6)”
output [highest 3 of 4d6] / 3 named “ADVANTAGE less risk option (+12.5% better average advantage) 4d6 drop lowest & divided by 3”
output [lowest 3 of 4d6] / 3 named “DISadvantage less risk option (-12.5% worse average DISadvantage) 4d6 drop highest & divided by 3”
output 1d100 named “1d100”
output [highest 1 of 2d100] named “ADVANTAGE highest 1 of 2d100 (+(%25) better than average, or average = 15)”
output [lowest 1 of 2d100] named “DISadvantage lowest 1 of 2d100 (-(%25) worse than average, or average = 5)”
output 2d100 / 2 named “LESS RISK OPTION 2d100 divided by 2 (average remains average as 1d100)”
output [highest 2 of 3d100] / 2 named “ADVANTAGE less risk option (+(17.5%) better than average advantage) 3d100 drop lowest & divided by 2”
output [lowest 2 of 3d100] / 2 named “DISadvantage less risk option (-(17.5%) worse than average DISadvantage) 3d100 drop highest & divided by 2”
output 3d100 / 3 named “LESS RISK OPTION 3d100 divided by 3 (average remains average as 1d100)”
output [highest 3 of 4d100] / 3 named “ADVANTAGE less risk option (+(+12.5%) better average advantage) 4d100 drop lowest & divided by 3”
output [lowest 3 of 4d100] / 3 named “DISadvantage less risk option (-(12.5%) worse average DISadvantage) 4d100 drop highest & divided by 3”
I think it’s ridiculous to do certain actions without player agency to choose their character’s risk factor in certain scenarios or actions, and there’s other actions (especially a lot of saving throws) which shouldn’t be very risky. Here’s how I look at the risk factor reduction option of averaging multiple dice:
There’s certain routine actions that carry risks which a lot of people take every day that could result in injury or death. Maneuvering in traffic around busy moving cars is the prime example.
Most people habitually look both ways while crossing a street. Some streets are busier than others. We never know when a freak drunk driver or defective vehicle is going to malfunction.
The probability of doing something exceptionally good or bad (like crossing the damn street) isn’t a dice roll, it’s a well established psychological good habit.
Likewise if the player character 2nd Level basic Fighter / soldier trained to slay orcs (which are stated (more or less like 1 hit dice / 1st level fighter) in melee with swords and axes, and they have certain predictable maneuvers. A 1d20 to hit roll doesn’t seem like the absolute only probability of the “to hit roll” for the fighter.
Thanks for your response and inspiration to explain more of what I mean:
by Navigator » Tue Dec 26, 2023 11:45 pm “This argument presupposes that fighters without averaging rolls are just flashing about rather than using good habits. That’s not a view I subscribe to. As for probability of hitting monsters, that’s represented by thac0. Using multiple die rolls and averaging them is double jeopardy.”
I disagree that’s necessarily the case “presupposes that fighters without averaging rolls are just flashing about rather than using good habits”. That is just 1 basic example. IMHO It’s an area of DM’s arbitration with the situation and what the players declare they want to do with each attack roll.
MY POINT IS, In just about any kind of competition, whether it is a game chess, a video game of mortal combat, cosplay styrofoam sword fighting, 1 on 1 basketball, or especially some kind of guerilla snipping (a combat scenario in DnD) with missile weapons like high range crossbows and magic missiles wands (which are to some degree another name for sci-fi laser rifles), there are degrees of risky intense offense and degrees of risk intensity of defense.
Ali vs Foreman – Rope A Dope Explained. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCOvjkbEn3c
I think a case can be made that if George Foreman and Muhammad Ali was an unfolding probability simulation with DnD stats and that risk factor option. Muhammad Ali used his superior wisdom and intelligence to study his opponent and improve his armor class over George foreman’s attacks, Ali estimated the he had enough constitution and hitpoints of his own enough to risk George Foreman’s high risk attacks, and so Ali only did low-risk (average of 2 rolls) offense at first baiting George into high risk critical fumbles to the point where Ali eventually had the upperhand and dealt the high risk victory blows!
The point I’m trying to make is sometimes this risk factor in probability needs a bell curve option for players which I’m implementing in my house rules and was wondering if anyone else cares to consider these ideas or did them long before I did and how it’s working for you?
Unfortunately I didn’t get around to posting this on dragonsfoot forums
but it might’ve helped prevent the asshole dork response that followed:
enter asshole dork
who took the bait (that was never intended as a troll bait) writes:
Does this just apply to the players or does it apply to the NPCs and Monsters as well? If it just applies to the players, is it all the time? This would make it a permanent “advantage” effect from the current edition and an over the top form of mollycoddling one’s players?
It can go either way (DM’s discretion whether when and if it applies to players or monsters)
It applies to situation specific to the level of challenge the DM wants to test the players.
Like everything else in the entire entertainment industry with competitive games, it’s only “mollycoddling” if there’s no complete enjoyment and challenge from all participants.
With that clarification out of the way you’d think he’d quit with that mollycoddling insult.
Dork bullshit assumption response:
OK so 1 person DM-ing his house rules / homebrew (mine) is of the opinion this mechanic is accounting for some scenarios in some of his fictional RPG scenarios with this is fun, and YOU another person doesn’t believe in that in your game. It’s that simple. This is just 2 peoples opinions of a fictional gaming world probability not absolute facts. We all have our own unique pre-conceived ideas of verisimilitude and fair play with commensurate entertainment satisfaction of all participants in a game and it all boils down to a matter of opinion of anyone DM’ing a game with opinions participants who appreciate.
I don’t think I “mitigate risk out of the game” just because I happen to think there’s verismilitude of low risk maneuvers in some scenarios. Exactly which scenarios when T.B.A. if and when players in my group apreciate that and in each every scenario!
It all boils down to whose DM-ing & enjoyment. It’s a game. It’s opinion entertainment consensus. That’s all any game ever was, happiness, enjoyment and fun.
“mollycoddling” is pretty loaded contemptuous insult suggesting you’re convinced I just want to spoil the players with advantage and toys and spoonfeed. You have no idea which scenarios I have in mind and which may or may not seem commensurate challenge and why from my perception. I’m guessing you have some experience playing and DM-ing and probably know situation and scenario kind of unfold unpredictably no matter what?
Your idea of “mitigate risk out of the game with some sort of advantage mechanic” is my idea of accounting for commensurate challenge based on some ideas of versimilitude of an IRL combat or risky activity IRL from my own pre-conceived life experiences NOT YOURS. You don’t live in my head. No one lives in anyone else’s head.
I strongly disagree that has anything necessarily to do with “mollycoddling” I did give ideas and examples in previous posts.
My conversation with you Ravens Craig on this matter is so done. You’re so done worth responding to for awhile. You’ve proven ridiculously judgemental and biased to me. I don’t care if you don’t like someone else’s gaming mechanic that’s not yours, all I ask of myself and others is to refrain from making assumptions and demanding anyone’s way is the best or someone else’s way is bad or the worst. When I hear “coddle” or “mollycoddling” I think pamper and spoil children with unlimited budget shopping sprees in toy stores toys & excess junk food that eventually makes them chronically ill. The gaming group I’m organizing is for people well into adulthood. No one is under 30.
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